And so, It Begins

March 24th, 2025

I had lunch yesterday with a young man who works in the construction industry. I asked him,

“Is work slowing down?”

“Yes.”

I asked him why people were getting laid off. He replied that big projects, one of which was supposed to start any day now, were being postponed or cancelled. His take was that this slowdown is due to Trump’s tariffs, especially those on steel. Builders, especially major players, don’t know where to get what they need. They could still purchase steel from overseas manufacturers, but it would cost them significantly more to do so. They may not be able to get the particular product they want from American companies. Also, the builders and those corporations who employ them have no idea if these tariffs are going to stick. Trump’s track record has been confusing and chaotic, so these projects are on hold until there is some stability. There might not ever be any.

The young man commends of the ultimate goal of the tariffs, that being the return of manufacturing to the United States. However, it has taken decades, especially since NAFTA was approved, for American companies to offshore production. It will take years to bring manufacturing back, if it even can come back. In the meantime, supplies chains are being broken and in some cases construction grinds to a halt.

When April 2nd rolls around, and Trump’s next wave of tariffs take effect, other industries will be impacted. An economy that up until now has been running smoothly, will stumble. Consumers, like corporations, will have to pay more or reluctantly switch over to alternative products. People will feel uneasy and buy less. I know that I will buy less.

Do you see a trend here?