Turbulence

April 12th, 2025

“In fluid dynamics, turbulence or turbulent flow is fluid motion characterized by chaotic changes in pressure and flow velocity. It is in contrast to laminar flow, which occurs when a fluid flows in parallel layers with no disruption between those layers.” – from Wikipedia

When I was at West Point, I took a course in thermo-fluid dynamics. I did not study this subject of my own free will. The class was mandatory. If you did not pass the course, you were strongly encouraged to find another career path. So, I stumbled through the semester, and now after nearly forty years, I can honestly say that I remember almost nothing from the class.

Almost nothing is not the same as nothing. I do recall the topic of turbulence. Turbulence in a fluid (be it a liquid or a gas) is evidence of a chaotic system. The movements of a chaotic system cannot be predicted. Basically, once a system becomes turbulent, that is chaotic, all bets are off. The equations don’t work anymore. You might as well use tarot cards.

When I became an Army aviator, it was impressed upon me that turbulence during flight is a bad thing. We never flew in the vicinity of thunderstorms due to air turbulence. There could updrafts, downdrafts, wind shear, and a host of other unpredictable and unpleasant events. Chaotic systems tend to be frightening.

At the present time, our national economy is turbulent. As evidenced by the recent gyrations of the stock market, it is now a chaotic system, and by definition scary as hell. There are a number of opinions on why things are wildly erratic. On-and-off tariffs don’t help the situation. Other factors also affect the economy, and all these forces make planning by corporations or consumers nearly impossible.

When I worked in the trucking industry, my company always had an annual brunch to evaluate the performance of the business during the previous year. The presentation during the brunch also included plans for the coming year: how many people would be trained and hired, how many tractors and trailers would be purchased, how many new facilities would be built or bought, etc. These plans were based on trends that management perceived in the overall economy. Since we carried freight of all sorts, our trucking business was the national economy in microcosm. In order for our management to make these plans, they needed a certain level of stability on the market.

I wonder how they are planning for the future now.

Turbulence or chaos is the enemy of planning, whether it is for a major corporation or for a family household. I can’t plan family expenditures if I am worried about my Social Security and Medicare. I can’t plan how much money to spend if my 401K is hemorrhaging. I can’t plan purchases if Medicaid won’t fund my grandson’s health care. Likewise, businesses will stop moving forward with new projects if they have no idea what will happen tomorrow. There is a massive construction project in our local area that is apparently on hold due to the tariff confusion.

We are all waiting for things to settle down. That may never happen.