Iran

March 2nd, 2026

Now that the United States is at war with Iran, the number of possible outcomes to this conflict seem endless. Some of the consequences are more likely than others. I would suggest that we can dismiss one result out of hand. I am referring to the chance of a regime change without American boots on the ground. Trump and the Pentagon have frequently said that we won’t send troops into Iran. Perhaps they won’t, but I can’t see how there will be the installation of a friendly government in Iran without an invasion.

After World War I, a number of military theorists, like Billy Mitchell and Giulio Douhet, promoted the importance of airpower. They stated that control of the skies was essential in any war, and some advocates of airpower even contended that airpower alone could bring victory. World War II gave everyone a reality check. The Americans and the British bombers pummeled German cities. They incinerated Hamburg and Dresden. They turned Berlin into rubble. However, the Germans didn’t surrender until the Soviet Army hoisted the red flag atop the Reichstag.

Why didn’t the Germans quit?

I have a book, The Last Battle, by Cornelius Ryan. It describes the final days on the Nazi regime and the bloody Götterdämmerung in Berlin. Much of the book explains the actions of the Soviet and British/American forces. There are also some very disturbing accounts of the events inside of Hitler’s bunker. Most of the members of the Nazi hierarchy that were holed in the bunker never even considered surrender. They knew better. They knew that they were marked men. They could either die at the hands of the vengeful Soviet troops or die by their own hands. These high-ranking officers hung on to what little power they had until the bitter end.

Why didn’t the German people rise up to overthrow the Nazi regime when the Allied air forces were blowing their homes to smithereens? My father-in-law was in the Luftwaffe in WWII. He and my wife’s uncles fought for Deutschland until they were utterly defeated. Many of the Germans feared the Nazis, but they feared the Red Army more. During their reign, the Nazis had eliminated all political opposition in the country. There was no resistance movement with the power to oust Hitler and his followers. The war didn’t end until the Allied forces occupied Germany. Airpower clearly helped the Allies to win, but they still needed boots on the ground.

Look at Iran. The United States has decapitated the regime, but the Iranian military forces are not giving up. The Iranian hierarchy won’t surrender for the same reason the Nazis didn’t. Surrender means death for them. Is there an alternative armed force in Iran that can oust the government? Not right now there isn’t. The civilian population may rebel, but do they have the weapons to topple the mullahs? Probably not. Will the civilians in Iran view the Americans as liberators if we blow up most of their country? I kind of doubt it.

If Trump really wants regime change, he will have to send in troops.

That will be ugly.