Tag: iran

It’s Still about Iran

May 1st, 2026

We’re two months into America’s latest Mideast predicament and there does not appear to be any quick resolution to our war of choice. There are already thousands of Iranians dead, along with thirteen U.S. soldiers. The situation is fluid, so I what I write now may be out of date before I even push the send button. However, I want to write about this fight because I have a personal connection to our “forever wars”. There is a strong sense of deja vu.

In general, wars in the Middle East have unintended consequences and often do not achieve the goals set forth at their beginnings. Let’s start with an American war that actually went rather well. Operation Desert Storm was started by George H.W. Bush in early 1991 to drive Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. The elder Bush had his ducks in a row before the shooting started. He had an international coalition assembled, he had the backing of the UN, and he had popular support both in the U.S. and other countries. Most importantly, Bush had a plan with clear, limited, and attainable goals. He drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait and wisely fought the urge to push all the way to Baghdad. His son, George W. Bush, was not so sagacious.

Now, let’s look at Trump’s war against Iran. I defy anyone to explain what the plan was when we attacked on February 28th besides the idea that we should blow stuff up until the Iranians did everything we wanted them to do. What is our ultimate goal? Is it regime change? Is it unconditional surrender? Is it the destruction of a culture? Is it opening the Strait of Hormuz? Is it to get the Iranians to promise that they will never, ever build a nuclear weapon? Is it to push a short leash on Iran’s proxies in the Mideast? Does anyone actually know what we are trying to do?

Let’s say that what the United States really wants is regime change in Iran. How do we do that? Economic sanctions? We have been using those for almost half a century, and the Iranian economy keeps limping along. The Iranians have developed a high tolerance for economic pain. We Americans have not. We are squealing about gas that is $4.29 a gallon. If governments can be toppled by economic hardship, then it is an open question which regime will collapse first, ours or theirs.

It is obvious that the current government in Iran is vile and hated by the citizens of the country. That does not mean the mullahs and the IRGC are ready to give up. People in Iran loathe their regime, but they also hate and fear us. Popular uprisings sometimes bring down governments, but they often do not. The Iranian authorities have a tight grip on all the levers of power. They will not let go of them until forced to do so.

A useful comparison could be made with the final days of the Third Reich. My wife’s father and her uncles all fought in WWII on the side of Germany. I know from their stories that they did not stop fighting until it was physically impossible for them to continue to do so. The German government did not collapse until the Soviets had occupied Berlin and Hitler put a bullet in his head. There were no uprisings in Nazi Germany. No mutinies. No mass desertions. Do we expect that the soldiers in the IRGC will be any less fanatical than the SS troops were?

Do we want the Iranians to promise “cross my heart and hope to die” that they will never seek nuclear weapons. We assume that by punishing them they will learn to forego those weapons. Well, maybe not. The Iranians might actually decide that they really need nukes. They have only to look at North Korea. The government there is at least as odious as that of Iran. Is anybody attacking Kim Jong Un and his regime? Why not? Because they have nukes! Those people are bulletproof and the Iranians (along with other countries) can see that.

This war looks like it will drag out. That depresses me. My oldest son fought in Iraq, another American forever war. Nothing he did there made any sense to me. Nothing we are doing in Iran makes any sense to me. My son came back damaged, as did many other vets. Are we going to maim another generation of young people? And for what?


Iran

March 2nd, 2026

Now that the United States is at war with Iran, the number of possible outcomes to this conflict seem endless. Some of the consequences are more likely than others. I would suggest that we can dismiss one result out of hand. I am referring to the chance of a regime change without American boots on the ground. Trump and the Pentagon have frequently said that we won’t send troops into Iran. Perhaps they won’t, but I can’t see how there will be the installation of a friendly government in Iran without an invasion.

After World War I, a number of military theorists, like Billy Mitchell and Giulio Douhet, promoted the importance of airpower. They stated that control of the skies was essential in any war, and some advocates of airpower even contended that airpower alone could bring victory. World War II gave everyone a reality check. The Americans and the British bombers pummeled German cities. They incinerated Hamburg and Dresden. They turned Berlin into rubble. However, the Germans didn’t surrender until the Soviet Army hoisted the red flag atop the Reichstag.

Why didn’t the Germans quit?

I have a book, The Last Battle, by Cornelius Ryan. It describes the final days on the Nazi regime and the bloody Götterdämmerung in Berlin. Much of the book explains the actions of the Soviet and British/American forces. There are also some very disturbing accounts of the events inside of Hitler’s bunker. Most of the members of the Nazi hierarchy that were holed in the bunker never even considered surrender. They knew better. They knew that they were marked men. They could either die at the hands of the vengeful Soviet troops or die by their own hands. These high-ranking officers hung on to what little power they had until the bitter end.

Why didn’t the German people rise up to overthrow the Nazi regime when the Allied air forces were blowing their homes to smithereens? My father-in-law was in the Luftwaffe in WWII. He and my wife’s uncles fought for Deutschland until they were utterly defeated. Many of the Germans feared the Nazis, but they feared the Red Army more. During their reign, the Nazis had eliminated all political opposition in the country. There was no resistance movement with the power to oust Hitler and his followers. The war didn’t end until the Allied forces occupied Germany. Airpower clearly helped the Allies to win, but they still needed boots on the ground.

Look at Iran. The United States has decapitated the regime, but the Iranian military forces are not giving up. The Iranian hierarchy won’t surrender for the same reason the Nazis didn’t. Surrender means death for them. Is there an alternative armed force in Iran that can oust the government? Not right now there isn’t. The civilian population may rebel, but do they have the weapons to topple the mullahs? Probably not. Will the civilians in Iran view the Americans as liberators if we blow up most of their country? I kind of doubt it.

If Trump really wants regime change, he will have to send in troops.

That will be ugly.