May 1st, 2026
We’re two months into America’s latest Mideast predicament and there does not appear to be any quick resolution to our war of choice. The situation is fluid, so I what I write now may be out of date before I even push the send button. However, I want to write about this fight because I have a personal connection to our “forever wars”. There is a strong sense of deja vu.
In general, wars in the Middle East have unintended consequences and often do not achieve the goals set forth at their beginnings. Let’s start with an American war that actually went rather well. Operation Desert Storm was started by George H.W. Bush in early 1991 to drive Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. The elder Bush had his ducks in a row before the shooting started. He had an international coalition assembled, he had the backing of the UN, and he had popular support both in the U.S. and other countries. Most importantly, Bush had a plan with clear, limited, and attainable goals. He drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait and wisely fought the urge to push all the way to Baghdad. His son, George W. Bush, was not so sagacious.
Now, let’s look at Trump’s war against Iran. I defy anyone to explain what the plan was when we attacked on February 28th besides the idea that we should blow stuff up until the Iranians did everything we wanted them to do. What is our ultimate goal? Is it regime change? Is it unconditional surrender? Is it the destruction of a culture? Is it opening the Strait of Hormuz? Is it to get the Iranians to promise that they will never, ever build a nuclear weapon? Is it to push a short leash on Iran’s proxies in the Mideast? Does anyone actually know what we are trying to do?
Let’s say that what the United States really wants is regime change in Iran. How do we do that? Economic sanctions? We have been using those for almost half a century, and the Iranian economy keeps limping along. The Iranians have developed a high tolerance for economic pain. We Americans have not. We are squealing about gas that is $4.29 a gallon. If governments can be toppled by economic hardship, then it is an open question which regime will collapse first, ours or theirs.
It is obvious that the current government in Iran is vile and hated by the citizens of the country. That does not mean the mullahs and the IRGC are ready to give up. People in Iran loathe their regime, but they also hate and fear us. Popular uprisings sometimes bring down governments, but they often do not. The Iranian authorities have a tight grip on all the levers of power. They will not let go of them until forced to do so.
A useful comparison could be made with the final days of the Third Reich. My wife’s father and her uncles all fought in WWII on the side of Germany. I know from their stories that they did not stop fighting until it was physically impossible for them to continue to do so. The German government did not collapse until the Soviets had occupied Berlin and Hitler put a bullet in his head. There were no uprisings in Nazi Germany. No mutinies. No mass desertions. Do we expect that the soldiers in the IRGC will be any less fanatical than the SS troops were?
Do we want the Iranians to promise “cross my heart and hope to die” that they will never seek nuclear weapons. We assume that by punishing them they will learn to forego those weapons. Well, maybe not. The Iranians might actually decide that they really need nukes. They have only to look at North Korea. The government there is at least as odious as that of Iran. Is anybody attacking Kim Jong Un and his regime? Why not? Because they have nukes! Those people are bulletproof and the Iranians (along with other countries) can see that.
This war looks like it will drag out. That depresses me. My oldest son fought in Iraq, another American forever war. Nothing he did there made any sense to me. Nothing we are doing in Iran makes any sense to me. My son came back damaged, as did many other vets. Are we going to maim another generation of young people? And for what?
Frank is Emptiness 