Iran

March 2nd, 2026

Now that the United States is at war with Iran, the number of possible outcomes to this conflict seem endless. Some of the consequences are more likely than others. I would suggest that we can dismiss one result out of hand. I am referring to the chance of a regime change without American boots on the ground. Trump and the Pentagon have frequently said that we won’t send troops into Iran. Perhaps they won’t, but I can’t see how there will be the installation of a friendly government in Iran without an invasion.

After World War I, a number of military theorists, like Billy Mitchell and Giulio Douhet, promoted the importance of airpower. They stated that control of the skies was essential in any war, and some advocates of airpower even contended that airpower alone could bring victory. World War II gave everyone a reality check. The Americans and the British bombers pummeled German cities. They incinerated Hamburg and Dresden. They turned Berlin into rubble. However, the Germans didn’t surrender until the Soviet Army hoisted the red flag atop the Reichstag.

Why didn’t the Germans quit?

I have a book, The Last Battle, by Cornelius Ryan. It describes the final days on the Nazi regime and the bloody Götterdämmerung in Berlin. Much of the book explains the actions of the Soviet and British/American forces. There are also some very disturbing accounts of the events inside of Hitler’s bunker. Most of the members of the Nazi hierarchy that were holed in the bunker never even considered surrender. They knew better. They knew that they were marked men. They could either die at the hands of the vengeful Soviet troops or die by their own hands. These high-ranking officers hung on to what little power they had until the bitter end.

Why didn’t the German people rise up to overthrow the Nazi regime when the Allied air forces were blowing their homes to smithereens? My father-in-law was in the Luftwaffe in WWII. He and my wife’s uncles fought for Deutschland until they were utterly defeated. Many of the Germans feared the Nazis, but they feared the Red Army more. During their reign, the Nazis had eliminated all political opposition in the country. There was no resistance movement with the power to oust Hitler and his followers. The war didn’t end until the Allied forces occupied Germany. Airpower clearly helped the Allies to win, but they still needed boots on the ground.

Look at Iran. The United States has decapitated the regime, but the Iranian military forces are not giving up. The Iranian hierarchy won’t surrender for the same reason the Nazis didn’t. Surrender means death for them. Is there an alternative armed force in Iran that can oust the government? Not right now there isn’t. The civilian population may rebel, but do they have the weapons to topple the mullahs? Probably not. Will the civilians in Iran view the Americans as liberators if we blow up most of their country? I kind of doubt it.

If Trump really wants regime change, he will have to send in troops.

That will be ugly.

How Did We Get So Old?

August 12th, 2025

Karin and I celebrated our wedding anniversary yesterday. Forty-one years. It seems like an impossibly long time. Of course, we know elderly couples that have been married for sixty years or more. We also know people who didn’t even make it through a year of marriage. And we know couples who don’t bother with marriage at all. I don’t understand why some couples stay married and others don’t. I certainly don’t why Karin and I are still together. Is it karma, love, or dumb luck? Or is it a combination of all those factors?

I suspect that a reason that a couple might stay together is because they have an intense, almost irrational level of commitment to each other. The “until death do us part” part of wedding vows is actually taken seriously. In many cases, marriage is seen as a contract between two parties. The relationship is purely transactional. It can be broken one party fails to comply with its obligations. A marriage can also be viewed as a covenant, as an unbreakable agreement where both individuals promise to stick withe the other regardless of what happens. In some situations, like spousal abuse or addiction, even a covenant can be broken, but the commitment is there at the beginning and the two members of the marriage do their best to make it work. That involves struggle and sacrifice, and sometimes love and joy. It is a vocation, a lifelong process. In a sense, two people really can become one.

Karin and I went out to eat yesterday. Our grandson, Asher, visited his mama for two hours, so Karin and I could be a couple while he was with her. Asher is constantly with us, since we are his fulltime caregivers. Maybe two or three times a year, we are Asher-free and we can do adult activities without a four-year-old tagging along. It just happened that one of these events occurred yesterday on our anniversary. We made the most of the opportunity.

We went to Cozumel, a Mexican restaurant that has outdoor seating on a balcony that sits high above the banks of the Milwaukee River. Karin ordered a potato fajita and I got choriqueso, an appetizer thar consists of chorizo and queso with a smattering of onions and peppers. It is basically a bowl of spicy cholesterol, but it tasted good with tortilla chips. Karin had a raspberry margarita and I had a cold mug of Negra Modelo.

We talked while we ate. We reminisced about our wedding in her home village in Germany four decades ago. Some of that is hard to recall. We have memories of memories at this point. Karin wanted to know what we had for dessert at the reception. I had no idea. Germans don’t do massive wedding cakes like Americans do. Actually, they prefer to have a plethora of smaller cakes. I remember her parents’ house being packed with kuchen from friends and neighbors.

Oddly enough, I do remember the wine we had. It was local vintage from Karin’s region of Germany. We toasted with a Marklsheimer Propstberg, a fruity white wine produced in the little town where we had our reception. It’s odd what things I can recall and what things I have completely forgotten.

Karin looked up from her meal and asked me,

“How did we get so old?”

I shrugged and said, “Lots of practice.”

She gave me a smirk. Then she said, “I’m seventy already.”

Yeah, she is. I’m sixty-seven. Most of our lives are in the rear view mirror. We’ve already done many things and made most of our decisions. Now, we are busy raising a little boy. This is our vocation, our calling. It may be the last one for us.

Karin didn’t finish her fajita. We asked the waiter for a box to take home. We were sitting at a tiny table at the edge of the balcony. I was trying to scoop the remains of the fajita into the box. I had a couple plates stacked up to make room. I nudge the plates and utensils as I filled the box.

“Fuck!” I said suddenly.

Karin asked me, “What is it?”

“A fork went over the edge of the balcony.”

She looked down and there, thirty feet below us, was a fork from our table.

We paid the bill and got ready to leave. I glanced at the waiter. I asked Karin,

“Should I tell him about the fork?”

She nodded.

I walked over to the waiter and tried to explain what had happened. He looked puzzled. I took him to the side of the balcony. I said,

“Look straight down.”

He did, and then he laughed.

“He told me, “Don’t worry. This happens all the time. Have a good night.”

I replied, “Gracias.”

He smiled, and said, “De Nada.”

We left to pick up Asher.